Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".